United Kingdom Monthly Outlook - October 2026
The UK economy continued to expand through the late summer, with growth, labour market and trade data all broadly resilient, even as inflation accelerated to its highest level in almost a year and the approach of the Chancellor’s first Budget on 28 October sharpened the focus on the public finances. Rising energy costs linked to the conflict in the Middle East, a widening gap between business and household activity, and a renewed debate over the UK’s relationship with the European Union have all shaped the backdrop against which the latest economic data should be read.
The International Monetary Fund’s October World Economic Outlook captured much of this tension. It raised its forecast for UK growth in 2026 to 1.3%, from 1.0% in July, citing a stronger than expected first half of the year, but trimmed its 2027 projection to 1.2% as higher energy prices and rising long-term interest rates weigh on consumption and investment. The Fund expects average UK inflation of 3.3% this year and 2.8% in 2027, and highlighted the UK’s progress on deficit reduction, while cautioning that any cost-of-living support should be targeted and temporary so as not to complicate the return of inflation to target. The official data are consistent with that assessment: real GDP grew by 0.7% in the three months to August, yet consumer price inflation rose to 3.5% in September, the highest rate since October 2025, and ONS survey evidence shows that nearly three-quarters of businesses are concerned about fuel and energy costs.
Against this backdrop, expectations for the Budget have intensified. Press analysis suggests the Chancellor must find in the region of £35 billion to avoid spending cuts and to fund commitments on health and defence, while higher borrowing costs since the outbreak of the Iran conflict have eroded the headroom against the fiscal rules. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) also reported that public debt was provisionally estimated to have exceeded £3 trillion at the end of September for the first time, a milestone that some commentators, including in the Telegraph, argue gives a misleading picture of the economy when taken in isolation. With the government committed to its manifesto pledge not to raise the main rates of income tax, National Insurance or VAT, attention has turned to a range of smaller measures, including capital gains tax, frozen income tax thresholds, a higher surcharge on banks and the treatment of pensions. Mr Healey has said the Budget will maintain fiscal discipline while giving businesses and families some breathing space.
Beyond the economic data, the Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, reopened one of the most sensitive questions in UK-EU relations by saying he wants an honest discussion about a possible return to freedom of movement for workers, as part of a broader reset that would also cover data sharing and migration cooperation. The remarks came as ONS figures show long-term net migration nearly halved in 2025, to 171,000 from 331,000 a year earlier, and drew sharp criticism from the Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage, who described them as a betrayal of Brexit. Mr Burnham is due to meet senior EU officials at a summit on 20 November. The direction of travel matters for the labour market and trade data reviewed below, given that the EU accounts for roughly half of UK goods trade.
The sections that follow set out the detailed data behind this narrative: economic growth, inflation, the labour market, international trade and the housing market. The Bank of England’s next Monetary Policy Committee decision is due on 5 November, and the outlook for interest rates is discussed within the inflation section.
i. Economic Growth
Monthly GDP data for August 2026 show the UK economy extending its run of growth, even as households and businesses absorb the impact of higher energy prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East. Official figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 15 October 2026 showed real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.1% in August, ahead of the consensus forecast of a 0.1% contraction, following unrevised growth of 0.4% in July and growth of 0.4% in June, which was revised up from 0.3%. The outturn was driven by a rebound in production, with services showing no growth and construction falling, a markedly different composition from the services-led expansion of recent months.
On a three-month basis, the measure the ONS regards as more representative of underlying conditions, real GDP grew by 0.7% in the three months to August compared with the three months to May. This is the eighth consecutive three-month on three-month expansion and follows growth of 0.5% in both the three months to July and the three months to June, each revised up from 0.4%. Compared with the same three months a year earlier, GDP grew by 1.8%, the strongest annual rate since the three months to October 2022, while August output alone was 2.1% higher than a year earlier, the highest annual reading since August 2022. The services sector was the only positive contributor over the three months, growing by 0.9%, while production fell by 0.2% and construction by 1.0%.
Contributions to Three-Month GDP Growth by Sector
The upside surprise has to be read alongside the revisions that accompanied it. The release incorporates Blue Book 2026 changes and updated source data, which lifted the estimate for June and raised the three-month growth rates for both June and July, while construction output for July was revised down to a fall of 0.5% from growth of 0.1%. Taken together, the data point to an economy that has proved more resilient than forecasters expected through the summer, although the flat August services reading and the continued weakness in construction suggest that momentum is more uneven than the headline figures imply.
Services
Services output was flat on the month in August, with four of the 14 subsectors growing, after growth of 0.5% in both June and July. Over the three months to August, however, services grew by 0.9%, with ten of the 14 subsectors expanding. The largest positive contributions came from professional, scientific and technical activities, which rose by 2.8%, led by accounting, bookkeeping, auditing and tax consultancy (up 5.5%), scientific research and development (up 4.9%) and legal activities (up 3.4%); from information and communication, up 2.8% and driven by a 5.0% rise in computer programming, consultancy and related activities; and from administrative and support services, up 3.0%, led by rental and leasing activities (up 7.6%). The ONS noted that computer programming has been the largest contributor to three-month growth in each of the last six months. Over the year, this industry alone contributed 0.32 percentage points to GDP growth, and the five industries with the largest contributions together accounted for 0.93 percentage points of the 1.8% annual expansion.
Offsetting these gains, wholesale and retail trade, and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, fell by 0.1% over the three months, as wholesale trade excluding motor vehicles declined by 2.3%, its fourth consecutive three-month fall, although the industry rebounded by 3.8% in August itself after five consecutive monthly declines, helped by wholesale of information and communication equipment. Consumer-facing services grew by 0.4% over the three months, supported by retail trade (up 1.1%) and accommodation (up 2.8%), but fell by 0.3% in August, with sports, amusement and recreation activities down 7.1% and food and beverage services down 2.7%.
Production
The production sector fell by 0.2% in the three months to August, following a fall of 0.7% in the three months to July (revised down from 0.5%). The decline reflected falls in water supply, sewerage and waste management (down 3.1%) and in mining and quarrying (down 0.6%), partly offset by growth in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (up 0.4%) and manufacturing (up 0.1%). On a monthly basis, however, production output rose by 0.8% in August, following growth of 0.3% in July (revised up from 0.2%), driven by manufacturing (up 1.2%), mining and quarrying (up 1.4%) and electricity and gas supply (up 0.1%). Within manufacturing, basic pharmaceutical products rose by 5.1% in the month and transport equipment by 1.8%, while over the three months the manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products was the largest positive contributor, up 3.5%.
Construction
Construction output fell by 1.0% in the three months to August, with new work down 1.4% and repair and maintenance down 0.3%. Private housing new work, which fell by 3.2%, made the largest negative contribution within new work, while non-housing repair and maintenance (down 1.9%) was the weakest part of repair activity. Monthly output fell by 0.2% in August, the fourth consecutive monthly decrease, as new work declined by 0.7% (with private housing new work down 1.9%) while repair and maintenance grew by 0.4%. The weakness is consistent with the pressure that high mortgage rates are placing on residential activity, a theme discussed in the housing section below.
Political and Market Reaction
The Chancellor, John Healey, described the August figure as welcome news. Economists emphasised the resilience of the economy while cautioning that the outlook is less favourable. Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said the economy had proved more robust than he had expected, but that he still anticipates the coming rise in inflation to dampen growth. He pointed to a divergence within the economy, with businesses performing well, partly because of AI-related spending, while households are becoming more circumspect, and noted that the IMF’s gloomier outlook for 2027 suggests the UK is far from out of the woods. KPMG’s chief economist, Yael Selfin, observed that the economy had shown considerable strength over the first eight months of the year despite significant external headwinds from the Iran conflict and higher energy prices. The Bank of England’s Deputy Governor, Sarah Breeden, said she had been surprised by how well the economy had absorbed the energy price shock.
The ONS real-time indicators point to a softer picture for September. Energy prices remained elevated, with wholesale electricity and gas prices more than double their levels a year earlier and automotive fuel prices continuing to rise. Consumer demand indicators weakened, with retail footfall slightly lower than a year earlier and fuel purchased per transaction down, while housing indicators pointed to weaker activity, with Energy Performance Certificates for new dwellings falling for a second consecutive month and properties spending longer on the market. Potential redundancies increased in early September after three consecutive monthly declines. The next monthly GDP estimate is due on 12 November 2026, and the ONS will publish a detailed analysis of the Blue Book 2026 revisions on 30 October.
ii. Inflation Rate
Consumer price inflation data for September 2026 show renewed upward pressure from energy and fuel prices intensifying, as the UK, which is more exposed than most Western economies to the war in the Gulf because of its reliance on imported gas, continues to absorb the oil and gas price shock. According to figures released by the ONS on 21 October 2026, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.5% in the 12 months to September, up from 3.1% in August, ahead of the median forecast of 3.4% in a Reuters poll and well above the 3.0% the Bank of England had projected in July. This was the highest annual rate since October 2025 and the third consecutive monthly increase, following a low of 2.6% in June. The broader CPIH measure, which includes owner occupiers’ housing costs, rose by 3.6%, up from 3.3% in August.
On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.4% in September, compared with little change a year earlier. Underlying pressures also strengthened. Core CPI, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, rose to 2.8% from 2.6%, while services inflation, which the Bank of England watches closely as a gauge of domestically generated price pressure, increased to 3.7% from 3.4%, above the 3.6% expected by economists. Goods inflation rose to 3.2% from 2.7%, the highest rate since September 2023, and RPI inflation stood at 3.9%. The UK’s CPI rate of 3.5% was also higher than the rates recorded for France (3.4%) and Germany (3.3%).
Inflation Rate (September 2016 – September 2026)
The rise in the 12-month rate reflected upward contributions from six of the twelve expenditure divisions, partly offset by downward contributions from four divisions on the CPI measure. By far the largest upward contribution came from transport, particularly motor fuels, while restaurants and hotels made the largest offsetting downward contribution.
Transport and Fuel Prices
Transport prices rose by 6.6% in the 12 months to September, up from 4.6% in August, and were the largest single driver of the headline increase, contributing 0.94 percentage points to the CPI rate. The average price of petrol rose by 8.2 pence per litre over the month to 169.5 pence, its highest level since August 2022, while diesel rose by 10.7 pence per litre to 192.5 pence, the highest since July 2022. Together, these moves pushed annual motor fuel inflation to 29.8% from 23.0%, the highest rate since August 2022. Air fares fell by 19.5% between August and September, compared with a fall of 28.8% a year earlier, with the smaller decline on European routes adding to the annual rate. All flight prices were collected after the outbreak of the Middle East conflict on 28 February 2026.
Housing, Energy and Other Divisions
Housing and household services inflation rose to 4.5% (CPIH basis) from 4.3%, driven mainly by owner occupiers’ housing costs, which rose by 4.0% from 3.9%, and by kerosene prices, which were up 22.7% on the year. The contribution from electricity, gas and other fuels rose to 0.19 percentage points, its largest since September 2025. Recreation and culture inflation increased to 2.3% from 1.6%, reflecting higher prices for live music and computer game downloads, and the ONS noted that the end of the Great British Summer Savings scheme on 1 September probably raised prices for cultural events, historic monuments and cinema admissions, although without a substantial effect on headline inflation. Restaurants and hotels inflation eased to 3.8% from 4.1% as hotel price growth slowed. Food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation was unchanged at 1.3%, a rate last lower in September 2021, although the Food and Drink Federation expects food inflation to arrive later and to persist for longer, as manufacturers have limited scope to pass on higher costs.
Policy and Market Reaction
The data add to the case for the Bank of England to raise interest rates at its next Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 5 November. The Bank held Bank Rate at 3.75% in September, when three of the nine members voted for an increase. Money markets were already pricing roughly a 96% probability of a 25 basis point rise in November, with a second increase priced by February. The Bank has itself forecast that inflation will rise to slightly above 4% in early 2027, and warned in September that the household energy price cap for January is expected to rise substantially further. The ONS analysists also noted that the annual cost of raw materials and of goods leaving factories continued to rise, driven by higher crude oil and petrol prices, which suggests that cost pressures remain in the pipeline.
The Chancellor linked the inflation outlook to the Budget, saying he would maintain fiscal discipline while giving businesses and families some breathing space. The IMF has cautioned that relief measures should be targeted and temporary to avoid complicating the return of inflation to target, and expects UK core inflation to return to 2% only in late 2027. The extent of pass-through from energy prices into wider inflation, and the response of wages, will determine how far the Bank needs to tighten, a question made more pressing by the 3.7% services inflation reading and by regular pay growth of 3.7%, discussed in the labour market section. The next consumer price inflation release, covering October 2026, is due on 18 November 2026.
iii. Wages & Labour Market
The UK labour market remained broadly flat in 2026, according to the ONS, with a slight improvement in household survey measures of employment and unemployment set against falling payrolled employment and weakening labour demand. The employment rate stood at 75.3% in the three months to August 2026, up 0.2 percentage points on both the year and the quarter, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.7%, down 0.1 percentage points on both comparisons. Economic inactivity was 20.9%, down 0.2 percentage points on the year and 0.1 percentage points on the quarter. The number of people in employment rose by 102,000 on the quarter to 34.6 million, while unemployment fell by 47,000 to 1.71 million. Redundancies increased to 3.8 per 1,000 employees, up 0.2 on the quarter, and the Claimant Count rose to 1.701 million in September, having increased since July.
Unemployment Rates
Earnings growth remained resilient but cooled further in total pay. Average weekly earnings rose by 3.7% year on year for regular pay (excluding bonuses), little changed over the past six three-month periods, and by 3.7% for total pay (including bonuses) in the three months to August, down from 3.9% in the previous three-month period and the lowest growth in total pay since August to October 2020. In real terms, adjusted using CPIH, regular pay grew by 0.6% and total pay by 0.7%, down from 1.0%, while using CPI real regular and total pay grew by 0.8% and 0.9% respectively. Average weekly earnings were estimated at £757 for total pay and £707 for regular pay in August. With CPIH inflation at 3.6% in September, close to the current pace of nominal pay growth, real earnings growth is likely to narrow further in the coming months.
Average Weekly Earnings (Seasonally Adjusted)
Public sector regular pay growth was 6.3%, compared with 3.0% in the private sector, a gap that continues to be inflated by the timing of pay awards this year, as increases for Agenda for Change staff took effect in April, for doctors and dentists in June and for resident doctors in September. Outside the public sector, finance and business services recorded the strongest regular pay growth at 3.3%, followed by manufacturing at 2.9% and wholesaling, retailing, hotels and restaurants at 2.7%, while construction lagged at 1.1%.
Administrative data from HMRC show a softer employment picture. Early estimates indicate that payrolled employees numbered 30.3 million in September, down 0.2% (66,000) on the year and up 13,000 on the month, while the estimate for August was revised from a fall of 26,000 to a small rise of 1,000 as additional returns were incorporated. Over the three months to August, payrolled employment was 92,000 lower than a year earlier. Administrative and support services added the most jobs over the year (up 66,000), while wholesale and retail lost the most (down 71,000). Median monthly pay rose by 4.4% on the year to £2,660 in the early estimate for September, with the fastest growth in other service activities (5.6%) and the slowest in transportation and storage (1.8%). Payrolled employment fell on the year in every region except Northern Ireland, where it rose by 0.9%, with London down 0.7%. The ONS advises that the Labour Force Survey, which has been affected by changes to collection and sampling methods, should be read alongside payroll data, the Claimant Count and workforce jobs.
Labour demand indicators weakened further. Vacancies fell by 21,000 (2.9%) on the quarter to 691,000 in the three months to September, the largest quarterly fall since the start of the year and 37,000 (5.1%) lower than a year earlier. Outside the pandemic period, vacancies have not been this low since July to September 2014. The ONS reports that the decline is mainly among smaller firms, which continue to indicate that rising labour costs are limiting recruitment.
Taken together, the data describe a labour market that is cooling gradually rather than deteriorating sharply. Household survey measures have improved and wage growth remains above inflation in real terms, but falling payrolls, a rising Claimant Count, vacancies at their lowest since 2014 outside the pandemic and a pickup in potential redundancies in early September point to reduced hiring appetite as businesses absorb higher energy and borrowing costs. These conditions will be closely watched by the Bank of England as it weighs a rate rise in November.
iv. International Trade
UK goods and services trade weakened modestly in August 2026, with both imports and exports of goods falling on the month and the overall deficit widening on a three-month basis. Goods imports fell by £1.3 billion (2.3%) to £54.2 billion, as a £1.7 billion (6.3%) fall in imports from non-EU countries more than offset a £0.5 billion (1.6%) rise in imports from the EU. Goods exports fell by £1.1 billion (3.1%) to £34.4 billion, with a £1.2 billion (7.3%) fall in exports to the EU partly offset by a £0.2 billion (0.9%) increase in exports to non-EU countries. The monthly goods deficit narrowed slightly to £19.8 billion, with the EU accounting for the larger share (£12.8 billion) compared with non-EU countries (£7.0 billion).
On a three-month basis, the total goods and services trade deficit, excluding precious metals, widened by £1.4 billion to £8.0 billion in the three months to August compared with the three months to May, as imports rose by £2.7 billion (1.1%) to £250.5 billion and exports by £1.3 billion (0.5%) to £242.5 billion. The goods deficit widened by £2.5 billion to £59.1 billion, while the services surplus widened by £1.1 billion to £51.1 billion, continuing to offset most of the goods shortfall. After removing the effect of inflation, the total trade deficit widened by £0.3 billion to £8.1 billion. Over the three months, the EU accounted for around 47% of UK goods exports and 52% of goods imports, and goods exports to the EU fell by £1.8 billion (3.5%) while exports to non-EU countries rose by £1.3 billion (2.3%).
UK Imports & Exports
The composition of the monthly moves reflects volatility in large-value items. The fall in non-EU imports followed a record rise in machinery and transport equipment in July, with imports of these goods falling by £1.2 billion in August on lower aircraft imports from the United States and ships from China, and miscellaneous manufactures falling by £0.2 billion on lower furniture imports from China. Higher imports from the EU were led by aircraft and pharmaceutical products from Germany and refined oil from the Netherlands. On exports, the fall in shipments to the EU was led by a £0.5 billion fall in machinery and transport equipment, mainly aircraft to the Netherlands, and by £0.3 billion falls in material manufactures and in fuels, the latter reflecting lower crude oil exports to Germany, Poland and Italy. Exports to non-EU countries were supported by higher chemical exports, particularly inorganic chemicals to the United States.
Trade in services is estimated to have increased in August, with exports rising by £0.2 billion (0.4%) and imports by £0.1 billion (0.2%), although these monthly figures are early estimates derived from second quarter data. The S&P Global UK Services PMI for August pointed to a modest improvement in operating conditions and higher business activity, but also to input cost inflation linked to higher fuel and transportation costs, with the Middle East conflict and softening demand in Europe both cited as weighing on exports.
The release also incorporated Blue Book 2026 revisions back to January 1997, which raised the second quarter 2026 goods balance by £5.2 billion, largely reflecting revised merchanting data for fuels after the sharp rise in crude oil prices, and revised the services balance for the fourth quarter of 2024 down by £5.6 billion. These revisions, together with the reallocation of silver, platinum and palladium bullion to unspecified goods, mean that comparisons with earlier bulletins should be made with care. Taken together, the data show a trade position that has weakened after a period of gradual narrowing, with a wider goods deficit driven by higher non-EU import values and weaker EU-bound exports, set against resilient services exports. The relationship with the EU, which accounts for roughly half of UK goods trade, is therefore likely to remain central to the outlook, particularly ahead of the planned UK-EU summit on 20 November.
v. Housing Market
UK house prices were unchanged in September 2026, according to the Lloyds House Price Index, following a fall of 0.3% in August (revised from an initial decline of 0.2%). The average property price stood at £298,441, compared with £298,395 in August, and annual growth returned to 0.0% from -0.4% in August, when prices had recorded their first year-on-year fall since November 2023. On a quarterly basis, prices were 0.2% lower than in the preceding three months.
Lloyds House Price Index: Annual, Quarterly and Monthly Change
Lloyds officials said that property prices have so far proved resilient during a period of higher mortgage rates, which has been driven by changing expectations around the future path of Bank Rate, and that this is mirrored in wider economic data, with household spending holding up better than many expected despite energy and other cost pressures. He argued that the outlook will depend on how confident consumers feel that the latest cost-of-living pressures will prove temporary, noting that the market appears to be balancing buyer caution with continued underlying demand. New enquiries from prospective buyers are now at their highest since February, which should help sustain activity in the near term, with any movement in prices likely to remain modest.
The average first-time buyer property price was broadly unchanged in September at £236,779, up marginally from £236,568 in August but still below the record high of £241,244 reached in February. The Government’s recently announced Your First Home scheme for eligible new-build properties in England, together with the growing availability of low-deposit mortgage products, could help more aspiring homeowners onto the property ladder, although eligibility criteria, income caps and local price caps are not expected to be confirmed until the Budget.
The regional divide remained pronounced. Northern Ireland continued to lead, with annual growth increasing to 7.4% from 6.8% and the average property value reaching a new record high of £231,917. Scotland recorded growth of 3.4%, to an average of £223,330, and growth strengthened in Wales to 1.2%, with the typical property now valued at £231,287. In England, growth remained strongest in the north, with the North East up 2.4% to £184,546 and the North West up 1.9% to £248,932, while the West Midlands was the only other English region with positive annual growth, at 0.8% (£260,892). Southern England remained under pressure, reflecting the greater affordability challenge: Greater London recorded the largest annual decline, down 2.2% to £531,548, followed by the South East, down 2.1% to £380,829, and Eastern England, down 1.6% to £330,151.
Activity data pointed to a subdued but stabilising market. UK residential transactions fell by 1.5% to 95,220 in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to HMRC, 3.9% lower than in the preceding three months and 1.9% below August 2025. Bank of England data showed mortgage approvals for house purchase falling to 54,918 in August, down 1.8% on the month and 16.0% lower than a year earlier. The RICS UK Residential Market Survey for August showed activity indicators becoming less negative but remaining weak, with the net balance for new buyer enquiries improving to -19% from -26% and for agreed sales to -17% from -28%, while new instructions rose to a net balance of zero from -2%. ONS real-time indicators for September, however, showed new-dwelling EPC registrations falling for a second consecutive month and properties spending longer on the market, suggesting that the recovery in demand remains fragile. With a Bank of England rate rise widely expected in November, mortgage affordability is likely to remain the key constraint on activity.
References
AFP via Kuwait Times (21 October 2026). Rising UK inflation, debt knocks govt ahead of budget. https://kuwaittimes.com/article/52065/business/rising-uk-inflation-debt-knocks-govt-ahead-of-budget/amp
Al Jazeera (25 October 2026). UK PM Burnham says he wants to discuss a return to EU freedom of movement. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/25/uk-pm-burnham-says-he-wants-to-discuss-a-return-to-eu-freedom-of-movement
Bloomberg (19 October 2026). UK inflation can seal the deal on the BoE’s November rate hike. https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2026/10/19/uk-inflation-can-seal-the-deal-on-the-boes-november-rate-hike
Euronews (15 October 2026). UK economy unexpectedly grows despite fall in consumer spending. https://www.euronews.com/2026/10/15/uk-economy-unexpectedly-grows-despite-fall-in-consumer-spending
InvestingLive. UK September CPI inflation rises to 3.5%, reinforces BOE November rate hike expectations. https://investinglive.com/news/uk-september-cpi-inflation-rises-to-3-5-reinforces-boe-november-rate-hike-expectations/
Irish News. Bank of England deputy surprised how well economy absorbed energy price shock. https://www.irishnews.com/news/uk/bank-of-england-deputy-surprised-how-well-economy-absorbed-energy-price-shock-TDEFP7SX7VKRDB4EE7HHPBS55U/
Irwin Mitchell (20 October 2026). What can business owners expect from the upcoming Autumn Budget? https://www.irwinmitchell.com/news-and-insights/expert-comment/post/102o5xj/what-can-business-owners-expect-from-the-upcoming-autumn-budget
ITV News (15 October 2026). UK economy unexpectedly grows 0.1% in August. https://www.itv.com/news/2026-10-15/uk-economy-unexpectedly-grows-01-in-august
iTiger, Deep News. IMF Warns UK to Use Cost-of-Living Relief Measures Prudently to Prevent Inflation Resurgence. https://www.itiger.com/news/1115400651
Lloyds Banking Group and S&P Dow Jones Indices. Lloyds House Price Index: September 2026.
London Loves Business. Budget risks being a ‘work of fiction’ as £35bn headache deepens despite IMF growth upgrade. https://londonlovesbusiness.com/?p=239351
Office for National Statistics (15 October 2026). GDP monthly estimate, UK: August 2026. https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/august2026
Office for National Statistics (15 October 2026). UK trade: August 2026. https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/august2026
Office for National Statistics (20 October 2026). Average weekly earnings in Great Britain: October 2026. https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/averageweeklyearningsingreatbritain/october2026
Office for National Statistics (20 October 2026). Employment in the UK: October 2026. https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/employmentintheuk/october2026
Office for National Statistics (20 October 2026). Labour market overview, UK: October 2026. https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/october2026
Office for National Statistics (21 October 2026). Consumer price inflation, UK: September 2026. https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/september2026
Office for National Statistics and HM Revenue and Customs (20 October 2026). Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, UK: October 2026. https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/bulletins/earningsandemploymentfrompayasyouearnrealtimeinformationuk/october2026
Osborne Clarke (6 October 2026). Autumn Budget 2026: what tax measures can the UK expect? https://www.osborneclarke.com/insights/autumn-budget-2026-what-tax-measures-can-uk-expect
PrimeXBT. IMF raises UK growth forecast to 1.3% ahead of Healey’s first budget. https://primexbt.com/news/imf-raises-uk-growth-forecast-to-1-3-ahead-of-healeys-first-budget/
Reuters (21 October 2026). UK inflation picks up more than expected to 3.5% in September. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-inflation-picks-up-more-than-expected-35-september-2026-10-21/
Comments